{"id":4804,"date":"2018-11-27T05:00:16","date_gmt":"2018-11-27T05:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/brexit-deal-could-cut-uk-growth-by-5-5-by-2030\/"},"modified":"2018-11-27T05:00:16","modified_gmt":"2018-11-27T05:00:16","slug":"brexit-deal-could-cut-uk-growth-by-5-5-by-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/brexit-deal-could-cut-uk-growth-by-5-5-by-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"Brexit deal &#8216;could cut UK growth by 5.5%&#8217; by 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div property=\"articleBody\">\n<figure class=\"media-landscape no-caption full-width lead\"><span class=\"image-and-copyright-container\"><\/p>\n<p>                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-image-replace\" alt=\"Theresa May\" src=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/320\/cpsprodpb\/12A8E\/production\/_104503467_gettyimages-1065088744.jpg\" width=\"976\" height=\"549\"\/><span class=\"off-screen\">Image copyright<\/span><br \/>\n                 <span class=\"story-image-copyright\">Getty Images<\/span><\/p>\n<p>            <\/span><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"story-body__introduction\">The PM&#8217;s Brexit deal could leave the economy as much as 5.5% smaller in a decade&#8217;s time than it would be if the UK stayed in the EU, a study has said.<\/p>\n<p>And the cost to the public finances could be as much as 1.8% of GDP, said the research by the London School of Economics, King&#8217;s College and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. <\/p>\n<p>It blamed the imposition of new trade barriers and a fall in immigration.<\/p>\n<p>The government said the deal was in &#8220;our national interest&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The report, published by independent think tank The UK in a Changing Europe, assumes that under the prime minister&#8217;s deal, Britain will remain in a customs union with the EU but leave the single market, as per the &#8220;backstop&#8221; arrangement. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"story-body__unordered-list\">\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-46338585\" class=\"story-body__link\">Brexit deal &#8216;will cost UK \u00a3100bn&#8217; by 2030<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-politics-46349144\" class=\"story-body__link\">May defends Brexit deal amid MPs&#8217; attacks<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, it said that regulatory barriers to both goods and services trade would increase as a result. <\/p>\n<p>It also said the deal would mean an end to free movement, reducing both skilled and unskilled immigration.<\/p>\n<p>Taken together, this would cause GDP per capita to be 1.9%-5.5% lower by 2030 than it would if Britain remained in the EU &#8211; the large range reflecting the &#8220;substantial uncertainties involved&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>However, it said this would rise to 3.5%-8.7% if there was a no deal Brexit. <\/p>\n<p>The study claimed the reduction in per-capita income would be comparable in Ireland to the UK, but for most EU countries the losses are estimated to be around 10 times lower.<\/p>\n<p>It also said that &#8220;such a large economic impact&#8221; would have major implications for the public finances.  <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;These would far outweigh any gains resulting from reduced EU contributions,&#8221; it said. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"story-body__crosshead\">&#8216;Good for business&#8217;<\/h2>\n<p>Professor Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, said: &#8220;Obviously, this kind of economic modelling needs to be treated with appropriate caution. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;However, our estimates provide a clear indication of the broad scale of the impact of the deal negotiated by the prime minister.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The study comes a day after research commissioned by the People&#8217;s Vote, which wants a second referendum, said the PM&#8217;s Brexit deal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-46338585\" class=\"story-body__link\">would leave the UK \u00a3100bn worse off a year by 2030<\/a> than if it remained in the EU. <\/p>\n<p>A government spokesperson said: &#8220;This deal will protect jobs and our economy while respecting the result of the referendum.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It delivers an economic partnership with the EU closer than any other country enjoys, is good for business and is in our national interest.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Prime Minister Theresa May will now need to persuade MPs in the UK Parliament to back her deal but she could struggle to get it through.<\/p>\n<p>If MPs reject the deal, a number of things could happen &#8211; including leaving with no deal, an attempt to renegotiate or a general election. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-46353125\">Source<\/a> by <a href=\"\">[author_name]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Image copyright Getty Images The PM&#8217;s Brexit deal could leave the economy as much as 5.5% smaller in a decade&#8217;s time than it would be if the UK stayed in the EU, a study has said. And the cost to the public finances could be as much as 1.8% of GDP, said the research by &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":4805,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4804\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.styledeals.co.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}